Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 27.4% | 72.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 47.3% | 52.7% | +0.6 | ✗ (1.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 73.4% | 26.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 92.4% | 7.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 94.3% | 5.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 94.4% | 5.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers -1 (74-75). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Ellington | 37 | 7-15 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 8 | - |
| T. Hansbrough | 35 | 10-15 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 14 | - |
| M. Ginyard | 35 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | - |
| D. Thompson | 25 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | - |
| D. Green | 24 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Q. Thomas | 20 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | - |
| A. Stepheson | 16 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| W. Graves | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Singletary | 35 | 9-20 | 3-8 | 6-7 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 19 | - |
| M. Diane | 29 | 4-11 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | - |
| C. Baker | 26 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
| A. Joseph | 24 | 2-10 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | - |
| R. Pettinella | 22 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| J. Jones | 19 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - |
| J. Tucker | 18 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | - |
| M. Scott | 14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| L. Mikalauskas | 13 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
* = starter