Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.3% | 28.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.4% | 43.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 55.1% | 44.9% | -1.1 | ✓ (9.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 21.8% | 78.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 21.6% | 78.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels -11 (78-89). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Singler | 37 | 5-11 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 | - |
| J. Scheyer | 33 | 4-11 | 2-4 | 7-8 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 17 | - |
| G. Paulus | 31 | 6-9 | 6-8 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 16 | - |
| G. Henderson | 29 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 2-6 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 13 | - |
| L. Thomas | 25 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| D. Nelson | 23 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 6-7 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 10 | - |
| N. Smith | 13 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -1 | - |
| D. McClure | 7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| T. King | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hansbrough | 38 | 12-21 | 0-0 | 4-9 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 22 | - |
| Q. Thomas | 35 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 6 | - |
| W. Ellington | 34 | 3-14 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | - |
| M. Ginyard | 33 | 3-10 | 2-4 | 8-8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 13 | - |
| D. Green | 23 | 1-10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| D. Thompson | 18 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - |
| A. Stepheson | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | - |
| W. Graves | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - |
* = starter