Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Florida State Seminoles | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 76.8% | 23.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 43.7% | 56.3% | +1.4 | ✗ (12.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 63.2% | 36.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 96.1% | 3.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 84.7% | 15.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 84.8% | 15.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Florida State Seminoles -11 (73-84). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hansbrough | 41 | 5-14 | 0-0 | 12-14 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 28 | - |
| Q. Thomas | 36 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 14 | - |
| W. Ellington | 35 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 2 | - |
| M. Ginyard | 31 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | - |
| D. Thompson | 28 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 8 | - |
| D. Green | 26 | 7-15 | 4-9 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 6 | - |
| A. Stepheson | 16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | - |
| W. Graves | 8 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | - |
| T. Lawson | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
Florida State Seminoles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Rich | 42 | 10-16 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 10 | - |
| T. Douglas | 39 | 3-20 | 1-9 | 5-6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | - |
| U. Echefu | 32 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 | - |
| I. Swann | 30 | 4-12 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | - |
| R. Mims | 27 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
| R. Reid | 22 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| J. Vaughn | 19 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| M. Zitani | 11 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| J. DeMercy | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| B. Hoff | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter