Model Predictions
| Model | UC Davis Aggies | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.5% | 28.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 52.3% | 47.7% | -0.5 | ✗ (12.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 17.5% | 82.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 88.4% | 11.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 15.5% | 84.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 15.4% | 84.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs +12 (79-67). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Payne | 38 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 14 | - |
| V. Oliver | 36 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 5 | - |
| S. Hanson | 35 | 7-12 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 16 | - |
| D. Carter | 29 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| K. Brucculeri | 26 | 3-9 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | - |
| C. Portz | 14 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| D. Calegari | 11 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| J. Lopez-Low | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| N. Clark | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Whiten | 32 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | - |
| T. Clark | 26 | 5-8 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 14 | - |
| C. Thomas | 26 | 6-8 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 18 | - |
| L. Keeler | 22 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | - |
| D. Vance | 22 | 8-9 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 13 | - |
| T. Shelton | 20 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| S. Lewis | 15 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| M. Hanson | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| C. Leavitt | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| J. Manley | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| C. Anderson | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter