Model Predictions
| Model | Michigan State Spartans | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 78.3% | 21.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.9% | 58.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.6% | 65.4% | +3.5 | ✓ (10.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.0% | 60.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 8.3% | 91.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 8.2% | 91.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +14 (81-67). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Neitzel * | 38 | 9-27 | 6-17 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 3 | - |
| R. Morgan * | 35 | 4-12 | 1-1 | 10-11 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 9 | - |
| T. Walton * | 32 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - |
| D. Naymick * | 27 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| M. Gray * | 19 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 13 | - |
| G. Suton | 23 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | - |
| M. Joseph | 16 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| J. Hannon | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| I. Dahlman | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hansbrough * | 38 | 10-17 | 0-0 | 13-17 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 27 | - |
| T. Lawson * | 36 | 6-10 | 3-5 | 5-6 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 23 | - |
| R. Terry * | 27 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 4-6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | - |
| B. Wright * | 23 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | - |
| W. Ellington * | 22 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| M. Ginyard | 17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
| D. Thompson | 13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| D. Green | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| W. Miller | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| A. Stepheson | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| B. Frasor | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Q. Thomas | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter