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San Diego State Aztecs 78
@
Portland Pilots 64
2007-11-10

Model Predictions

Model San Diego State Aztecs Portland Pilots Spread Result
Elo 94.4% 5.6% - ✓
Bradley-Terry 74.8% 25.2% - ✓
Margin 77.8% 22.2% -6.9 ✓ (7.1 off)
Pythagorean 62.4% 37.6% - ✓
Efficiency 47.6% 52.4% - ✗
Adjusted Efficiency 88.0% 12.0% - ✓
Log Adjusted 88.2% 11.8% - ✓

Actual: Portland Pilots -14 (64-78). Predictions use season-end ratings.

San Diego State Aztecs

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
T. Shelton 30 4-7 0-1 4-4 5 1 2 0 1 12 12 -
D.J. Gay 30 1-6 1-3 0-0 0 4 0 0 1 3 0 -
K. Spain 27 5-10 2-6 10-13 8 1 0 0 2 22 19 -
R. Amoroso 25 2-5 1-1 0-2 4 2 3 0 2 5 7 -
L. Wade 25 6-11 2-2 4-6 2 3 0 1 2 18 11 -
K. Davis 22 4-8 2-3 0-0 2 1 0 0 1 10 4 -
B. White 19 3-5 0-0 2-3 5 2 1 1 1 8 11 -
M. Thomas 17 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 1 2 0 0 0 5 -
J. Johnson 5 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

Portland Pilots

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
L. Sikma 34 3-8 0-1 2-2 10 5 0 1 5 8 11 -
T. Ito 29 0-6 0-5 0-0 2 1 0 0 1 0 -4 -
N. Raivio 29 4-9 2-5 0-0 6 1 0 0 3 10 5 -
R. Smeulders 29 6-12 1-2 3-4 5 0 0 1 2 16 8 -
W. Thompson 24 1-6 1-3 0-0 3 4 0 0 2 3 2 -
S. Watson 19 5-7 0-1 9-10 1 1 1 0 0 19 15 -
E. Niedermeyer 16 1-2 0-1 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 -
K. Knutson 16 3-4 0-0 0-0 3 0 0 1 0 6 6 -
M. Carter 4 0-2 0-1 0-0 0 1 0 1 1 0 -1 -

* = starter