Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Las Vegas Aces | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.9% | 45.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 55.0% | 45.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.2% | 50.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Las Vegas Aces -5 (79-84). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diana Taurasi * | 33 | 9-21 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 7 | - |
| Penny Taylor * | 32 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 | - |
| Kelly Miller * | 31 | 5-10 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Cappie Pondexter * | 31 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 8-9 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 16 | - |
| Tangela Smith * | 31 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Kelly Mazzante | 18 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Kelly Schumacher | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Belinda Snell | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Jennifer Lacy | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
Las Vegas Aces
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruth Riley * | 33 | 4-11 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | - |
| Becky Hammon * | 28 | 5-12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 1 | - |
| Vickie Johnson * | 25 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | - |
| Sophia Young-Malcolm * | 23 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 11 | - |
| Helen Darling * | 20 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Shanna Zolman | 27 | 7-15 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 8 | - |
| Camille Smith | 19 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Marie Ferdinand-Harris | 10 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Sandora Irvin | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Chantelle Anderson | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter