Model Predictions
| Model | Minnesota Lynx | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.0% | 86.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 24.0% | 76.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.6% | 67.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 26.6% | 73.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 26.6% | 73.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +13 (106-93). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Minnesota Lynx
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicole Ohlde * | 30 | 5-15 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 16 | - |
| Seimone Augustus * | 30 | 9-14 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 16 | - |
| Svetlana Abrosimova * | 29 | 5-11 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Noelle Quinn * | 27 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | - |
| Tiffany Stansbury * | 10 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Kristen Mann | 25 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Shay Murphy | 14 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Amber Jacobs | 12 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Kathrin Ress | 9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | - |
| Navonda Moore | 5 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Tamika Raymond | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Miller * | 32 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Tangela Smith * | 31 | 9-20 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 13 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 31 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 5 | - |
| Penny Taylor * | 30 | 8-19 | 1-3 | 11-15 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 20 | - |
| Cappie Pondexter * | 28 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Kelly Mazzante | 16 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Kelly Schumacher | 15 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Belinda Snell | 13 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | - |
* = starter