Model Predictions
| Model | NC State Wolfpack | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 32.0% | 68.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.1% | 66.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 19.6% | 80.4% | +7.8 | ✓ (1.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 25.0% | 75.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +9 (89-80). Predictions use season-end ratings.
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Costner * | 38 | 10-20 | 3-5 | 5-7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 10 | - |
| C. Fells * | 36 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 19 | - |
| B. McCauley * | 35 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| E. Atsur * | 32 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | - |
| G. Grant * | 32 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 2 | - |
| D. Horner | 14 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | - |
| B. Nieman | 13 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Wright * | 31 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 10 | - |
| T. Lawson * | 30 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 11 | - |
| T. Hansbrough * | 29 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 11-11 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 14 | - |
| W. Ellington * | 28 | 6-8 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 12 | - |
| R. Terry * | 24 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 12 | - |
| D. Thompson | 14 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| M. Ginyard | 13 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| D. Green | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| B. Frasor | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - |
| W. Miller | 4 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| A. Stepheson | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter