Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 74.1% | 25.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 57.0% | 43.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 52.5% | 47.5% | -0.6 | ✗ (14.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 15.0% | 85.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 15.4% | 84.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 15.4% | 84.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +14 (86-72). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. McRoberts * | 36 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 9 | - |
| D. Nelson * | 35 | 5-15 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | - |
| J. Scheyer * | 35 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| G. Paulus * | 31 | 7-14 | 3-8 | 4-4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 13 | - |
| D. McClure * | 16 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| G. Henderson | 30 | 8-14 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | - |
| B. Zoubek | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| L. Thomas | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| M. Pocius | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| J. Davidson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| S. Johnson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Mccants | 0 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - |
| L. Sanders | 0 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
| E. Larkins | 0 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 9 | - |
| I. Latta | 0 | 7-15 | 4-9 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 7 | - |
| C. Little | 0 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | - |
| B. Wright * | 30 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 11 | - |
| T. Hansbrough * | 30 | 10-18 | 0-0 | 6-9 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 25 | - |
| R. Terry * | 29 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 6-6 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 15 | - |
| W. Miller * | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| D. Burke * | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| T. Lawson | 29 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| M. Ginyard | 20 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 12 | - |
| W. Ellington | 15 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| D. Thompson | 13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| D. Green | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| B. Frasor | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| M. Copeland | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| A. Stepheson | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter