Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | UT Arlington Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.1% | 81.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.2% | 76.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 14.6% | 85.4% | +9.7 | ✓ (0.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 33.5% | 66.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 24.8% | 75.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.8% | 69.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UT Arlington Mavericks +9 (93-84). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Bush | 32 | 7-13 | 3-6 | 8-8 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 21 | - |
| C. Agwumaro | 27 | 4-12 | 0-5 | 4-8 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 12 | - |
| A. Blanchard | 24 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | - |
| G. Kiel | 24 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -5 | - |
| B. Thomas | 22 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 5 | - |
| D. Moseley | 21 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 4-5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 13 | - |
| M. Fullenwider | 20 | 4-10 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -1 | - |
| B. Holder | 16 | 3-8 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | - |
| A. Williams | 13 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| D. Kollo | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
UT Arlington Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Guignard | 34 | 6-15 | 3-9 | 4-5 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 13 | - |
| L. Posey | 30 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 8 | - |
| T. Moffitt | 29 | 6-10 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 22 | - |
| R. Epps | 21 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 4-6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Brycen Long | 21 | 4-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | - |
| A. Vereen | 20 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 7-7 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 19 | - |
| J. Griffin | 19 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 | - |
| C. Hunter | 14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| M. Read | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| T. Henry | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter