Model Predictions
| Model | Pacific Tigers | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.9% | 77.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.2% | 72.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.2% | 76.8% | +6.6 | ✓ (5.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 34.3% | 65.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.8% | 69.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs +12 (82-70). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Pacific Tigers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Brown | 36 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 | - |
| S. Horsechief | 34 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | - |
| A. Esparza | 34 | 6-8 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 14 | - |
| S. Johnson | 25 | 3-7 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 6 | - |
| R. Vezia | 23 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | - |
| M. White | 17 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -2 | - |
| W. Raffety | 17 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| C. Neimeyer | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| B. Pemberton | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| C.J. Morgan | 4 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Whiten | 36 | 5-10 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 12 | - |
| D. Stockalper | 34 | 9-12 | 4-7 | 3-3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 18 | - |
| T. Clark | 28 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -2 | - |
| T. McGinn | 27 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| C. Thomas | 22 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 6-6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 21 | - |
| M. Hanson | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | - |
| T. Shelton | 17 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| D. Vance | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | - |
| J. Henry | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| J. Manley | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter