Model Predictions
| Model | NC State Wolfpack | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 32.0% | 68.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.1% | 66.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 19.6% | 80.4% | +7.8 | ✓ (11.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 25.0% | 75.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +19 (83-64). Predictions use season-end ratings.
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Atsur * | 40 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 5-6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 13 | - |
| C. Fells * | 39 | 3-12 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - |
| G. Grant * | 39 | 6-13 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | - |
| B. McCauley * | 38 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | - |
| B. Costner * | 30 | 6-10 | 3-4 | 3-3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 9 | - |
| D. Horner | 12 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| B. Nieman | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hansbrough * | 34 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 10 | - |
| B. Wright * | 30 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 6-9 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 22 | - |
| W. Ellington * | 27 | 2-9 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| T. Lawson * | 20 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | - |
| R. Terry * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| D. Green | 17 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14 | - |
| B. Frasor | 14 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - |
| M. Ginyard | 13 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | - |
| D. Thompson | 12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| W. Miller | 8 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Q. Thomas | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| A. Stepheson | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter