Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.9% | 85.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.8% | 70.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 21.9% | 78.1% | +7.0 | ✗ (13.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 79.0% | 21.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 78.6% | 21.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.6% | 21.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils -6 (73-79). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hansbrough | 34 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 11 | - |
| R. Terry | 26 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 12 | - |
| T. Lawson | 25 | 6-12 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 13 | - |
| B. Wright | 24 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 15 | - |
| W. Ellington | 18 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | - |
| M. Ginyard | 18 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - |
| W. Miller | 17 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| B. Frasor | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| D. Green | 11 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| D. Thompson | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| A. Stepheson | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Q. Thomas | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Scheyer | 38 | 8-18 | 4-10 | 6-8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 9 | - |
| G. Paulus | 37 | 5-17 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 6 | - |
| J. McRoberts | 30 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 | - |
| D. Nelson | 25 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 8 | - |
| G. Henderson | 25 | 6-13 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | - |
| D. McClure | 22 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | - |
| L. Thomas | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| B. Zoubek | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | - |
| M. Pocius | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Davidson | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter