Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | NC State Wolfpack | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 51.6% | 48.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 56.1% | 43.9% | -1.3 | ✗ (5.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 69.0% | 31.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 96.4% | 3.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 94.5% | 5.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 94.6% | 5.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: NC State Wolfpack +4 (83-79). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hansbrough | 32 | 9-16 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 14 | - |
| T. Lawson | 31 | 8-12 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 16 | - |
| B. Wright | 31 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 13 | - |
| W. Ellington | 26 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | - |
| M. Ginyard | 20 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
| R. Terry | 15 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| D. Thompson | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
| D. Green | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| W. Miller | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| B. Frasor | 6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| A. Stepheson | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Q. Thomas | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | - |
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Grant | 39 | 5-10 | 2-3 | 4-6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 5 | - |
| E. Atsur | 38 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 7-7 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 20 | - |
| B. Costner | 38 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 6-9 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 20 | - |
| C. Fells | 35 | 8-11 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 20 | - |
| B. McCauley | 28 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 16 | - |
| D. Horner | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | - |
| B. Nieman | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter