Model Predictions
| Model | Dayton Flyers | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.8% | 65.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 25.3% | 74.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 11.7% | 88.3% | +11.1 | ✓ (18.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 7.6% | 92.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +30 (81-51). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Roberts | 32 | 5-18 | 2-8 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | -3 | - |
| M. Johnson | 29 | 6-13 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 8 | - |
| M. Scott | 26 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 6 | - |
| K. Huelsman | 26 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| N. Plummer | 21 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| J. Binnie | 19 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -4 | - |
| A. Sandoval | 18 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| L. Warren | 14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | - |
| C. Little | 10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | - |
| D. Adedeji | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| N. Stafford | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Hogan | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hansbrough | 26 | 7-11 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 7 | - |
| B. Wright | 26 | 8-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 13 | - |
| W. Ellington | 24 | 6-11 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | - |
| R. Terry | 21 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | - |
| D. Green | 20 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 16 | - |
| T. Lawson | 19 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 13 | - |
| W. Miller | 18 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | - |
| D. Thompson | 14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | - |
| M. Ginyard | 14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| A. Stepheson | 12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | - |
| S. Wood | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Copeland | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| D. Burke | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
* = starter