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2006-11-24

Model Predictions

Model North Carolina Tar Heels Tennessee Volunteers Spread Result
Elo 30.7% 69.3% -
Bradley-Terry 46.4% 53.6% -
Margin 39.1% 60.9% +2.4 (16.4 off)
Pythagorean 59.2% 40.8% -
Efficiency 85.7% 14.3% -
Adjusted Efficiency 89.0% 11.0% -
Log Adjusted 89.1% 10.9% -

Actual: Tennessee Volunteers -14 (87-101). Predictions use season-end ratings.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
B. Wright 29 9-10 0-0 1-1 8 1 1 0 2 19 17 -
T. Hansbrough 29 8-17 0-0 11-15 9 6 1 0 1 27 25 -
R. Terry 26 3-4 0-0 4-6 8 3 0 3 5 10 15 -
T. Lawson 25 5-8 1-3 3-4 1 6 1 0 4 14 10 -
W. Ellington 22 5-9 2-3 2-3 4 1 1 0 2 14 9 -
B. Frasor 19 1-5 1-3 0-0 5 1 0 0 1 3 3 -
M. Ginyard 17 1-3 0-0 0-0 4 1 1 0 5 2 0 -
W. Miller 12 1-1 1-1 0-0 0 0 1 0 0 3 3 -
D. Green 10 1-1 1-1 2-2 4 1 0 0 2 5 7 -
D. Thompson 9 1-2 0-0 0-0 4 0 0 0 4 2 0 -
A. Stepheson 2 0-1 0-0 2-2 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 -

Tennessee Volunteers

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
C. Lofton 30 6-13 5-8 1-3 3 3 0 0 2 18 9 -
D. Bradshaw 27 4-7 1-2 1-3 2 7 5 2 2 10 17 -
D. Crews 21 4-10 0-0 2-4 6 0 2 0 1 10 7 -
J. Smith 21 5-13 4-7 4-5 2 1 1 0 2 18 7 -
J. Howell 20 1-6 1-5 2-2 0 5 0 0 0 5 4 -
R. Smith 20 3-9 0-1 0-0 2 2 1 0 1 6 1 -
W. Chism 19 4-6 3-4 1-5 4 0 0 0 2 12 8 -
J. Tabb 15 1-3 1-2 0-0 0 0 1 0 0 3 1 -
T. Passley 14 0-3 0-1 5-10 6 0 0 2 1 5 9 -
R. Childress 13 0-3 0-1 0-0 2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -

* = starter