Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Connecticut Sun | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 68.5% | 31.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 58.9% | 41.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 51.5% | 48.5% | -0.3 | ✗ (5.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 55.4% | 44.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 55.4% | 44.6% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Connecticut Sun +5 (82-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diana Taurasi * | 36 | 10-24 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 9 | - |
| Cappie Pondexter * | 35 | 4-14 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | - |
| Kelly Miller * | 35 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 13 | - |
| Kamila Vodichkova * | 30 | 4-12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 | - |
| Kristen Rasmussen * | 28 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12 | - |
| Penny Taylor | 12 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Jennifer Derevjanik | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Jennifer Lacy | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Belinda Snell | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Connecticut Sun
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj McWilliams-Franklin * | 34 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 29 | - |
| Katie Douglas * | 33 | 5-17 | 3-8 | 9-11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 13 | - |
| Lindsay Whalen * | 31 | 6-17 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | - |
| Megan Mahoney * | 18 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Margo Dydek * | 15 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Asjha Jones | 21 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 21 | - |
| Jamie Carey | 20 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Erin Phillips | 11 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Laura Summerton | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Le'coe Willingham | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter