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2006-03-10

Model Predictions

Model Virginia Cavaliers North Carolina Tar Heels Spread Result
Elo 58.1% 41.9% -
Bradley-Terry 38.3% 61.7% -
Margin 23.8% 76.2% +6.4 (5.6 off)
Pythagorean 27.4% 72.6% -
Efficiency 1.0% 99.0% -
Adjusted Efficiency 7.8% 92.2% -
Log Adjusted 7.6% 92.4% -

Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +12 (79-67). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Virginia Cavaliers

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
J.R. Reynolds * 38 3-16 2-9 12-14 4 4 2 0 1 20 13 -
S. Singletary * 37 7-16 3-7 12-12 10 1 5 0 2 29 27 -
L. Mikalauskas * 30 3-8 0-0 0-1 5 0 0 0 2 6 1 -
A. Joseph * 27 0-8 0-5 0-0 3 1 1 1 2 0 -4 -
J. Cain * 16 1-4 0-0 0-0 6 0 0 0 0 2 4 -
M. Diane 17 3-7 2-4 0-0 2 1 2 0 1 8 5 -
T. Bannister 14 0-2 0-0 2-2 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 -
B. Campbell 11 0-0 0-0 0-0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 -
T. Soroye 10 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 1 0 1 1 0 2 -

North Carolina Tar Heels

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
D. Noel * 36 4-8 1-2 1-4 11 5 0 1 3 10 16 -
T. Hansbrough * 35 5-10 0-0 7-12 8 1 2 2 2 17 18 -
R. Terry * 28 8-13 1-5 7-7 7 1 1 0 1 24 19 -
W. Miller * 25 4-4 3-3 4-4 3 0 1 0 0 15 15 -
B. Frasor * 16 0-2 0-2 0-0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 -
Q. Thomas 24 0-3 0-0 3-4 4 6 2 0 2 3 10 -
M. Ginyard 17 3-4 0-0 0-0 2 1 0 0 2 6 3 -
D. Green 13 1-4 0-2 2-2 3 0 0 0 4 4 -1 -
B. Sanders 6 0-1 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -

* = starter