Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.7% | 84.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.4% | 69.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 22.1% | 77.9% | +6.9 | ✗ (13.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 26.7% | 73.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.9% | 60.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils -7 (76-83). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hansbrough * | 37 | 9-17 | 1-1 | 8-9 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 21 | - |
| D. Noel * | 30 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | - |
| B. Frasor * | 29 | 3-9 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 7 | - |
| M. Ginyard * | 23 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Q. Thomas * | 11 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| R. Terry | 32 | 3-13 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 7 | - |
| W. Miller | 17 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| D. Green | 16 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | - |
| B. Sanders | 5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Redick * | 39 | 5-21 | 2-10 | 6-6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 4 | - |
| S. Williams * | 32 | 9-15 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 20 | - |
| G. Paulus * | 28 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | - |
| L. Melchionni * | 27 | 4-8 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 13 | - |
| S. Dockery * | 24 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| D. Nelson | 29 | 6-11 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 11 | - |
| J. McRoberts | 20 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| P. Johnson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| E. Boateng | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Pocius | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Boykin | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter