Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois Fighting Illini | Michigan State Spartans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 60.1% | 39.9% | -5.1 | ✓ (1.9 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.0% | 45.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 55.5% | 44.5% | -1.2 | ✓ (5.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.0% | 26.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 74.1% | 25.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.3% | 46.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Michigan State Spartans -7 (68-75). Ratings: 2005-06 season-end ratings.
Illinois Fighting Illini
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. McBride * | 34 | 4-9 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | - |
| James Augustine * | 33 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Dee Brown * | 31 | 6-13 | 5-10 | 3-4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 12 | - |
| S. Pruitt * | 25 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Brian Randle * | 18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Jamar Smith | 21 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | - |
| C. Frazier | 18 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | - |
| W. Carter | 13 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| M. Arnold | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Ager * | 38 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 3-6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Shannon Brown * | 35 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 7-8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 19 | - |
| P. Davis * | 33 | 6-12 | 0-1 | 9-11 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 24 | - |
| Drew Neitzel * | 33 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| D. Rowley * | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Goran Suton | 22 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | - |
| T. Walton | 14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| I. Ibok | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| D. Ducre | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Joseph | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter