Model Predictions
| Model | Connecticut Sun | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.7% | 81.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.2% | 71.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.7% | 68.3% | +4.2 | ✓ (0.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +5 (91-86). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Connecticut Sun
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie Douglas * | 34 | 8-16 | 5-8 | 6-7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 15 | - |
| Nykesha Sales * | 34 | 7-19 | 2-8 | 5-5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 7 | - |
| Taj McWilliams-Franklin * | 33 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 19 | - |
| Lindsay Whalen * | 29 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Margo Dydek * | 15 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Asjha Jones | 24 | 4-14 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | - |
| Megan Mahoney | 10 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Erin Phillips | 10 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Le'coe Willingham | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diana Taurasi * | 36 | 10-15 | 5-6 | 10-11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 26 | - |
| Cappie Pondexter * | 35 | 4-14 | 0-0 | 7-10 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 12 | - |
| Kristen Rasmussen * | 29 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 18 | - |
| Kamila Vodichkova * | 28 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 7 | - |
| Jennifer Derevjanik * | 28 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Jennifer Lacy | 16 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Crystal Smith | 12 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Bridget Pettis | 6 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Kayte Christensen | 5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Belinda Snell | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter