Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.1% | 41.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.8% | 76.2% | +6.4 | ✓ (38.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 27.4% | 72.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 7.8% | 92.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 7.6% | 92.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +45 (99-54). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.R. Reynolds * | 34 | 7-17 | 2-10 | 3-4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 2 | - |
| S. Singletary * | 30 | 6-15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 3 | - |
| A. Joseph * | 25 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -2 | - |
| T. Soroye * | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| J. Cain * | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - |
| L. Mikalauskas | 34 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | - |
| M. Diane | 21 | 0-11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | - |
| B. Campbell | 17 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| T. Bannister | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Forkin | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| D. Shiembob | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| M. Deasey | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Noel * | 29 | 10-16 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 18 | - |
| B. Frasor * | 20 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | - |
| B. Sanders * | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| T. Wilkins * | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| W. Robinson * | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| T. Hansbrough | 27 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 14 | - |
| R. Terry | 21 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 9-10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 16 | - |
| W. Miller | 21 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - |
| Q. Thomas | 16 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 11 | - |
| D. Green | 16 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | - |
| M. Ginyard | 15 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 11 | - |
| M. Copeland | 6 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| D. Burke | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| S. Wood | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter