Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | NC State Wolfpack | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 55.9% | 44.1% | -1.3 | ✓ (22.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 58.5% | 41.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 50.6% | 49.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 76.4% | 23.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 76.6% | 23.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: NC State Wolfpack -24 (71-95). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Noel * | 35 | 10-14 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 25 | - |
| T. Hansbrough * | 31 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 10 | - |
| W. Miller * | 29 | 5-8 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 14 | - |
| B. Frasor * | 26 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - |
| R. Terry * | 25 | 9-14 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 10 | - |
| D. Green | 14 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | - |
| Q. Thomas | 13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - |
| B. Sanders | 13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| M. Ginyard | 9 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | - |
| S. Wood | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| W. Robinson | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| T. Wilkins | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| D. Burke | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
| M. Copeland | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Atsur * | 34 | 5-12 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 6 | - |
| C. Bennerman * | 29 | 3-8 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
| C. Simmons * | 29 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 5-6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 18 | - |
| T. Bethel * | 27 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | - |
| A. Brackman * | 19 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 4-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 9 | - |
| G. Grant | 23 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| B. McCauley | 15 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| I. Evtimov | 15 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| C. Fells | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter