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2006-02-19

Model Predictions

Model North Carolina Tar Heels Wake Forest Demon Deacons Spread Result
Elo 56.2% 43.8% -
Bradley-Terry 69.6% 30.4% -
Margin 76.0% 24.0% -6.3 (4.7 off)
Pythagorean 61.3% 38.7% -
Efficiency 76.0% 24.0% -
Adjusted Efficiency 82.8% 17.2% -
Log Adjusted 83.0% 17.0% -

Actual: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -11 (72-83). Predictions use season-end ratings.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
T. Hansbrough * 32 6-11 0-0 5-7 6 1 1 0 0 17 14 -
R. Terry * 31 7-14 2-5 8-9 3 2 3 0 2 24 16 -
B. Frasor * 30 1-3 0-1 3-4 5 2 0 0 5 5 4 -
D. Noel * 23 5-10 2-5 1-2 5 3 1 0 3 13 9 -
W. Miller * 23 1-4 1-4 3-4 0 2 1 0 0 6 5 -
M. Ginyard 18 2-3 0-0 2-2 5 0 1 0 1 6 8 -
B. Sanders 15 0-0 0-0 2-2 3 1 0 0 0 2 6 -
D. Green 14 4-5 2-3 0-0 3 0 0 2 1 10 9 -
Q. Thomas 11 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 3 0 0 1 0 1 -
M. Copeland 3 0-1 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
J. Gray * 35 7-23 5-14 1-2 3 6 2 0 2 20 6 -
T. Strickland * 30 2-5 1-2 0-0 7 3 1 0 3 5 8 -
E. Williams * 30 9-16 0-0 1-2 8 0 0 2 3 19 10 -
M. Drum * 26 4-8 2-3 0-0 2 5 0 0 2 10 7 -
K. Swinton * 21 2-2 0-0 0-0 3 0 0 1 1 4 5 -
H. Hale 24 1-3 0-0 1-2 3 1 2 0 1 3 5 -
C. Ellis 18 2-3 0-1 0-0 4 0 0 3 0 4 8 -
K. Visser 10 1-3 0-0 3-4 2 0 0 0 1 5 3 -
C. Stanley 6 1-4 0-1 0-0 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 -

* = starter