Model Predictions
| Model | UCF Knights | SMU Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 57.2% | 42.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 38.2% | 61.8% | +2.6 | ✓ (19.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 27.9% | 72.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 4.4% | 95.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 34.8% | 65.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: SMU Mustangs +22 (77-55). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UCF Knights
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Williams | 34 | 3-12 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 8 | - |
| J. Rose | 29 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
| T. Lindbeck | 27 | 4-5 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 8 | - |
| J. Peppers | 26 | 6-13 | 1-7 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 4 | - |
| D. Noel | 23 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | - |
| M. O'Donnell | 17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - |
| J. Taylor | 13 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | - |
| M. Johnson | 12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | - |
| L. Payne | 9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| A. Gill | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| D. Speraw | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
SMU Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pearson | 30 | 7-12 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 19 | - |
| D. Willingham | 28 | 0-6 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| B. Hopkins | 27 | 7-10 | 3-4 | 6-7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 19 | - |
| D. Roberts | 27 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| I. Ofoegbu | 23 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | - |
| B. Fall | 21 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| D. Rackauskas | 16 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | - |
| B. Epps | 14 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| J. Killen | 12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 1 | - |
| R. Hopkins | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter