Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 72.9% | 27.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 52.2% | 47.8% | -0.5 | ✓ (3.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 67.3% | 32.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.2% | 45.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 54.1% | 45.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels -4 (83-87). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Williams * | 39 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 7-10 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 19 | - |
| J. Redick * | 39 | 12-22 | 5-10 | 6-6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 16 | - |
| S. Dockery * | 37 | 5-9 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 6 | - |
| G. Paulus * | 35 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 6 | - |
| J. McRoberts * | 21 | 6-8 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 16 | - |
| L. Melchionni | 14 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| D. Nelson | 14 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| M. Pocius | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Noel * | 36 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 15 | - |
| T. Hansbrough * | 33 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 6-9 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 12 | - |
| W. Miller * | 26 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 6 | - |
| B. Frasor * | 25 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 3 | - |
| R. Terry * | 24 | 5-14 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 5 | - |
| D. Green | 16 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Q. Thomas | 15 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| M. Ginyard | 14 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | - |
| B. Sanders | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| M. Copeland | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter