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Cal Poly Mustangs 52
@
UC Davis Aggies 65
2006-01-13

Model Predictions

Model Cal Poly Mustangs UC Davis Aggies Spread Result
Elo 16.5% 83.5% - ✓
Bradley-Terry 32.7% 67.3% - ✓
Margin 24.9% 75.1% +6.1 ✓ (6.9 off)
Pythagorean 56.4% 43.6% - ✗
Efficiency 60.1% 39.9% - ✗
Adjusted Efficiency 58.3% 41.7% - ✗
Log Adjusted 58.4% 41.6% - ✗

Actual: UC Davis Aggies +13 (65-52). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Cal Poly Mustangs

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
D. Stockalper 38 4-10 2-4 4-4 3 1 0 0 4 14 4 -
C. Thomas 30 2-9 0-4 2-2 6 0 0 0 2 6 1 -
G. Stephenson 27 3-6 0-0 6-7 7 1 0 0 3 12 11 -
T. Clark 26 2-8 0-2 5-8 4 4 1 0 2 9 8 -
T. Shelton 23 1-2 0-0 3-4 6 0 0 0 2 5 7 -
C. Osborn 22 0-4 0-2 0-0 3 0 1 0 1 0 -1 -
T. McGinn 22 2-6 0-1 0-1 1 0 1 0 3 4 -3 -
Z. Thurow 6 0-0 0-0 2-2 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 -
J. Henry 6 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 -

UC Davis Aggies

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
V. Oliver 38 4-11 1-4 0-0 2 2 1 0 1 9 2 -
R. Marentez 35 4-7 2-5 6-8 4 2 2 0 0 16 17 -
P. Rasmussen 33 4-7 0-2 1-2 4 0 0 0 0 9 6 -
K. Brucculeri 28 3-9 3-7 3-4 4 3 1 0 1 12 10 -
T. Juillerat 27 3-9 0-1 5-7 6 1 2 1 2 11 10 -
J. Lopez-Low 23 2-5 0-1 0-0 7 1 2 1 3 4 7 -
D. Carter 9 1-1 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 -
L. Ford 4 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 -
M. Boone 3 1-2 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 -

* = starter