Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | UT Arlington Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.7% | 73.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.3% | 76.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 27.2% | 72.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 12.3% | 87.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 12.1% | 87.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 20.7% | 79.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UT Arlington Mavericks +19 (83-64). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jushay Rockett | 34 | 6-15 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Charles Dotson | 31 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Trevor Cook | 30 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Chris Langhorne | 25 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Lance Burroughs | 24 | 3-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | - |
| Brandon Bush | 23 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | - |
| A. Blanchard | 15 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Jason Rogers | 14 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Jeremy Johnson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Dylan Moseley | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
UT Arlington Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Howell | 36 | 6-9 | 1-3 | 7-8 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 23 | - |
| B. Dawkins | 32 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| S. Thomas | 29 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 6-9 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Larry Posey | 24 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Brandon Long | 18 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Anthony Vereen | 17 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Rod Epps | 13 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | - |
| K. Henderson | 13 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Jermaine Griffin | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Myles Guidry | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter