Model Predictions
| Model | Fresno State Bulldogs | New Mexico State Aggies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.4% | 32.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 78.4% | 21.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 61.6% | 38.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.7% | 27.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.6% | 27.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: New Mexico State Aggies +3 (73-70). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Fresno State Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Bell | 37 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Quinton Hosley | 36 | 5-17 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Ja'Vance Coleman | 35 | 8-18 | 5-13 | 5-6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 8 | - |
| Dwight O'Neil | 34 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Hector Hernandez | 33 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Donovan Morris | 13 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Renato Cesar | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Ajay Riding | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Jeff Jackson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
New Mexico State Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Knauber | 40 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 2 | - |
| T. Nelson | 36 | 6-14 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 13 | - |
| Mike Mitchell | 35 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 10 | - |
| E. Ingram | 30 | 7-8 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 9 | - |
| David Fisher | 21 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Kevin Ford | 16 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Shaun Davis | 14 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | - |
| S. Jegede | 8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter