Model Predictions
| Model | Portland Pilots | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.5% | 44.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.7% | 54.3% | +0.9 | ✗ (5.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.4% | 49.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.9% | 41.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.9% | 41.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs -5 (61-66). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Portland Pilots
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Jeter | 36 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 9 | - |
| D. Wilson | 33 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 4 | - |
| D. Cooper | 33 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 3-5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 10 | - |
| M. Lewis | 32 | 3-13 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 12 | - |
| B. Sullivan | 26 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 | - |
| S. Watson | 17 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - |
| K. Field | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| J. Dominguez | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| M. Carter | 6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| A. Tiefenthaler | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Stephenson | 35 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | - |
| D. Stockalper | 33 | 6-11 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 9 | - |
| D. Whiten | 32 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 1-3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -1 | - |
| C. Thomas | 30 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | - |
| T. McGinn | 25 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 7-8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 11 | - |
| T. Clark | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| C. Osborn | 12 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Z. Thurow | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| J. Henry | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter