Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Kentucky Wildcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.1% | 70.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.0% | 61.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 33.2% | 66.8% | +3.8 | ✗ (7.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 78.5% | 21.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 79.7% | 20.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 80.0% | 20.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Kentucky Wildcats -4 (79-83). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Noel * | 38 | 6-12 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 13 | - |
| T. Hansbrough * | 33 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 | - |
| B. Frasor * | 33 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | - |
| R. Terry * | 28 | 7-15 | 2-6 | 9-10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 16 | - |
| M. Ginyard * | 27 | 3-9 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | - |
| W. Miller | 20 | 4-6 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 4 | - |
| D. Green | 12 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -1 | - |
| B. Sanders | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | - |
Kentucky Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Moss * | 35 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 6-8 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 18 | - |
| R. Rondo * | 33 | 9-11 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 15 | - |
| P. Sparks * | 31 | 3-12 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -2 | - |
| R. Sims * | 29 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | - |
| B. Perry * | 22 | 4-11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | - |
| S. Thomas | 26 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | - |
| R. Bradley | 15 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 8 | - |
| J. Carter | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| L. Obrzut | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| M. Adetula | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| B. Stockton | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter