Model Predictions
| Model | Pepperdine Waves | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 3.3% | 96.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 14.3% | 85.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 7.3% | 92.7% | +14.0 | ✓ (4.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 27.8% | 72.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.0% | 98.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.9% | 98.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers +18 (63-45). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Pepperdine Waves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Gerrity | 30 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | -5 | - |
| J. Henry | 29 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 11 | - |
| T. Forehan-Kelly | 27 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | - |
| G. Barlow | 27 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -4 | - |
| C. Oakes | 27 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 16 | - |
| D. Grubb | 15 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| T. Pranciliauskas | 14 | 1-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | - |
| C. Horning | 9 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| C. Roush | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | - |
| C. Griffin | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| W. Galick | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| K. Costain | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Roberts | 28 | 0-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| N. Plummer | 28 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | - |
| W. Williams | 25 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 12 | - |
| M. Scott | 22 | 5-9 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 | - |
| J. Cripe | 21 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| C. Alvarez | 17 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| L. White | 16 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| J. Binnie | 11 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
| M. Bennett | 11 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - |
| D. Adedeji | 11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | - |
| C. Little | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| J. Penno | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| N. Stafford | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| W. Brady | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
* = starter