Model Predictions
| Model | Fresno State Bulldogs | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 62.7% | 37.3% | -6.1 | ✓ (1.9 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 72.9% | 27.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 71.4% | 28.6% | -5.0 | ✓ (3.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 62.6% | 37.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 82.8% | 17.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 82.8% | 17.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.8% | 39.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs -8 (77-85). Ratings: 2005-06 season-end ratings.
Fresno State Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Hosley | 40 | 9-16 | 4-6 | 7-11 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 30 | - |
| K. Bell | 40 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 11 | - |
| J. Coleman | 38 | 10-21 | 2-8 | 5-8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 9 | - |
| Hector Hernandez | 26 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| D. O'Neil | 25 | 0-7 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Donovan Morris | 17 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 5 | - |
| R. Cesar | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| A. Riding | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Stephenson | 38 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 17 | - |
| Chaz Thomas | 36 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 12 | - |
| D. Stockalper | 35 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | - |
| D. Whiten | 34 | 8-13 | 5-9 | 5-6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 9 | - |
| C. Leavitt | 20 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | - |
| T. McGinn | 12 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | - |
| T. Busch | 11 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| J. Henry | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| C. Osborn | 4 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Z. Thurow | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter