Model Predictions
| Model | Toronto Raptors | Sacramento Kings | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 23.4% | 76.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.6% | 71.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.8% | 76.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.7% | 62.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 33.3% | 66.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 33.2% | 66.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 21.2% | 78.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Sacramento Kings +2 (106-104). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike James * | 37 | 8-17 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 36 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 20 | - |
| Morris Peterson * | 35 | 6-12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 15 | - |
| Jalen Rose * | 29 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Charlie Villanueva * | 27 | 6-12 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Rafael Araujo * | 22 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Joey Graham * | 21 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Jose Calderon * | 20 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Matt Bonner * | 10 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
Sacramento Kings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Garcia * | 42 | 5-13 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 5 | - |
| Shareef Abdur-Rahim * | 40 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 8-9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 23 | - |
| Bonzi Wells * | 38 | 7-14 | 0-2 | 4-5 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 17 | - |
| Brad Miller * | 37 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 21 | - |
| Mike Bibby * | 36 | 10-21 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 8 | - |
| Kenny Thomas * | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Kevin Martin * | 14 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - |
| Jason Hart * | 12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
* = starter