Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 73.7% | 26.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 50.4% | 49.6% | -0.1 | ✗ (2.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 31.2% | 68.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 43.6% | 56.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +2 (75-73). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Redick * | 39 | 5-13 | 4-9 | 3-4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 11 | - |
| D. Ewing * | 38 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 9 | - |
| S. Williams * | 36 | 10-13 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 20 | - |
| L. Melchionni * | 36 | 5-13 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 7 | - |
| S. Randolph * | 15 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| D. Nelson | 24 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | - |
| R. Love | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| P. Johnson | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| D. McClure | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| P. Davidson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Larkins | 0 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7 | - |
| C. Little | 0 | 3-10 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | - |
| N. Bell | 0 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 8 | - |
| I. Latta | 0 | 9-16 | 5-10 | 9-11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 17 | - |
| L. Atkinson | 0 | 0-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
| J. Manuel * | 32 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| E. Arriaran * | 19 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -2 | - |
| C.J. Hooker * | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| C. Everett * | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| A. Roche | 37 | 3-13 | 0-3 | 5-8 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 4 | - |
| S. May | 34 | 10-19 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 35 | - |
| M. Williams | 26 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 8 | - |
| M. Scott | 22 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| D. Noel | 21 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| R. Terry | 5 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Q. Thomas | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter