Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | UT Arlington Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.2% | 61.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 42.6% | 57.4% | +1.6 | ✓ (12.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 77.8% | 22.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: UT Arlington Mavericks +14 (65-51). Predictions use season-end ratings.