Model Predictions
| Model | UC Davis Aggies | Cal State Northridge Matadors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 61.0% | 39.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.2% | 58.8% | +2.0 | ✓ (25.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 34.4% | 65.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 5.7% | 94.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 5.6% | 94.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal State Northridge Matadors +27 (99-72). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Abdelsamad | 33 | 6-17 | 4-12 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 3 | - |
| P. Rasmussen | 28 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 5 | - |
| R. Marentez | 26 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | - |
| R. Moore | 26 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | - |
| T. Juillerat | 22 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 8-12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - |
| J. Carlyle | 20 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | - |
| M. Butts | 18 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| J. Stearns | 12 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 | - |
| R. Ehsan | 9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| R. Schwarz | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| A. Warmerdam | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Cal State Northridge Matadors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Boylan | 35 | 6-11 | 4-5 | 6-8 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 29 | - |
| D. White | 28 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | - |
| J. Frazier | 28 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 22 | - |
| C. Chitwood | 23 | 6-8 | 2-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 10 | - |
| T. Shewmake | 19 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| D. Smith | 17 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | - |
| J. Caracciolo | 16 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | - |
| R. Locke | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - |
| J. Heard | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| A. Washington | 6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| K. Cook | 5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
* = starter