Model Predictions
| Model | Air Force Falcons | San Diego State Aztecs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 70.4% | 29.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 63.2% | 36.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 65.8% | 34.2% | -3.6 | ✓ (16.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 67.5% | 32.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 82.7% | 17.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 82.8% | 17.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Diego State Aztecs -20 (57-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Air Force Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Keller | 36 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | - |
| A. Hood | 34 | 8-12 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 12 | - |
| N. Welch | 31 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 | - |
| J. Burtschi | 29 | 5-8 | 2-5 | 4-6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 19 | - |
| M. McCraw | 27 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 12 | - |
| D. Nwaelele | 17 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| M. Holum | 10 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| C. Buchanan | 9 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| T. Anderson | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| D. Peterson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Thomas | 38 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 12-13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 17 | - |
| N. LeSure | 38 | 3-15 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | -1 | - |
| C. Walton | 32 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 10 | - |
| J. Sharper | 25 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| B. Hudson | 22 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - |
| C. Manker | 17 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| T. Johnson | 13 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| T. Smith | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| M. Camara | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter