Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | NC State Wolfpack | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 56.8% | 43.2% | -1.5 | ✓ (8.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 56.8% | 43.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 80.5% | 19.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 84.7% | 15.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 84.8% | 15.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: NC State Wolfpack -10 (71-81). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Roche * | 38 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 7-9 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 21 | - |
| S. May * | 29 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 10 | - |
| M. Scott * | 28 | 4-8 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | - |
| E. Arriaran * | 28 | 5-10 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 13 | - |
| J. Manuel * | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| M. Williams | 20 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 10-12 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 16 | - |
| D. Noel | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| R. Terry | 15 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | - |
| B. Sanders | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Q. Thomas | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Holley | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| C.J. Hooker | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| W. Miller | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Atsur * | 38 | 4-13 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 8 | - |
| J. Hodge * | 37 | 7-16 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 9 | - |
| I. Evtimov * | 35 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | - |
| T. Bethel * | 33 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| J. Collins * | 23 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7 | - |
| C. Simmons | 14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 7 | - |
| C. Bennerman | 10 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| A. Brackman | 7 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | - |
| G. Grant | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter