Model Predictions
| Model | BYU Cougars | Air Force Falcons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.7% | 65.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.7% | 65.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 29.6% | 70.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 29.6% | 70.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 28.6% | 71.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Air Force Falcons +31 (70-39). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
BYU Cougars
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Reichner | 32 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | - |
| Mike Hall | 28 | 3-11 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -7 | - |
| J. Balderson | 26 | 1-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Chris Miles | 23 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Terry Nashif | 20 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Sam Burgess | 18 | 3-8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 | - |
| Austin Ainge | 16 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -2 | - |
| M. Rose | 14 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Derek Dawes | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Jared Jensen | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Josh Burgess | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Air Force Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Keller | 23 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Matt McCraw | 22 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| A. Hood | 21 | 6-7 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Dan Nwaelele | 20 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Jacob Burtschi | 18 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - |
| Caleb Buchanan | 18 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Tim Anderson | 15 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| N. Welch | 15 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Marc Holum | 11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Ryan Teets | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| J. Dillinger | 7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| D. Peterson | 7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Chris Swan | 5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Adam Hood | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| John Frye | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Eric Kenzik | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Keith Maren | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter