Model Predictions
| Model | Pittsburgh Panthers | Villanova Wildcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.2% | 65.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.0% | 49.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.1% | 64.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.1% | 63.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Villanova Wildcats +8 (80-72). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Pittsburgh Panthers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Krauser * | 38 | 3-10 | 2-4 | 8-10 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Chevon Troutman * | 31 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Antonio Graves * | 30 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | - |
| A. Bishop * | 24 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 12 | - |
| L. Kendall * | 18 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Ronald Ramon | 26 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Aaron Gray | 15 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Mark McCarroll | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Keith Benjamin | 9 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Villanova Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Nardi * | 37 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | - |
| A. Ray * | 29 | 7-16 | 5-11 | 4-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 5 | - |
| Will Sheridan * | 29 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - |
| Randy Foye * | 28 | 5-12 | 1-3 | 4-6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Curtis Sumpter * | 28 | 6-9 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | - |
| Kyle Lowry | 23 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Jason Fraser | 22 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | - |
| Marcus Austin | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter