Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | UConn Huskies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 10.1% | 89.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 28.3% | 71.7% | +5.1 | ✗ (12.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.4% | 44.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 64.9% | 35.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 80.3% | 19.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 80.3% | 19.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UConn Huskies -7 (70-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Roche * | 34 | 5-14 | 2-6 | 4-6 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 18 | - |
| S. May * | 28 | 5-11 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 18 | - |
| E. Arriaran * | 28 | 7-17 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 6 | - |
| R. McCants * | 27 | 7-16 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 1 | - |
| J. Manuel * | 18 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - |
| M. Williams | 23 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| M. Scott | 17 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| D. Noel | 13 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| R. Terry | 6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Q. Thomas | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
UConn Huskies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Gay * | 39 | 4-14 | 1-3 | 4-6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 9 | - |
| M. Williams * | 36 | 7-14 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 7 | - |
| J. Boone * | 33 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 18 | - |
| D. Brown * | 28 | 5-12 | 2-7 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 10 | - |
| C. Villanueva * | 27 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| M. Mulchrone | 18 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | - |
| A. Kellogg | 16 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | - |
| R. Thompson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| E. Nelson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter