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2005-02-12

Model Predictions

Model Cal Poly Mustangs UC Davis Aggies Spread Result
Elo 16.1% 83.9% -
Bradley-Terry 31.9% 68.1% -
Margin 24.0% 76.0% +6.3 (13.7 off)
Pythagorean 30.9% 69.1% -
Adjusted Efficiency 24.3% 75.7% -
Log Adjusted 24.3% 75.7% -

Actual: UC Davis Aggies +20 (85-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Cal Poly Mustangs

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
A. Haskins 39 4-10 2-4 2-4 4 3 3 2 4 12 10 -
Mike Titchenal 33 10-18 0-3 0-1 6 0 0 1 0 20 9 -
J. Henry 29 3-5 0-1 3-3 6 0 0 1 4 9 7 -
G. Jones 25 1-2 0-0 0-0 0 3 0 0 4 2 -1 -
L. Finnegan 21 3-5 0-1 2-4 2 3 0 0 1 8 7 -
R.J. Socci 15 2-2 0-0 0-0 0 0 1 0 1 4 2 -
T. McGinn 15 0-0 0-0 0-1 2 2 0 0 2 0 2 -
P. Johnson 13 2-5 0-0 0-0 5 0 0 1 1 4 4 -
N. Enzweiler 7 0-0 0-0 4-4 1 1 1 0 3 4 4 -
V. Lisinac 3 1-3 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 0 2 1 -

UC Davis Aggies

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
F. Abdelsamad 34 6-14 4-8 3-3 1 1 0 0 2 19 5 -
R. Marentez 31 3-7 3-5 5-6 6 3 2 0 3 14 15 -
R. Moore 30 6-11 1-2 2-3 0 2 1 0 1 15 6 -
T. Juillerat 25 6-10 1-2 2-2 2 3 0 0 2 15 8 -
J. Stearns 24 2-4 1-3 0-0 3 1 2 0 0 5 7 -
P. Rasmussen 23 2-4 2-4 0-1 5 5 1 0 2 6 11 -
R. Ehsan 15 3-5 1-1 2-2 3 1 1 0 0 9 9 -
J. Carlyle 8 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 1 1 0 -1 -
A. Warmerdam 7 0-1 0-1 2-2 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 -
M. Butts 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -
R. Schwarz 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

* = starter