Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.2% | 84.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.9% | 69.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.2% | 76.8% | +6.6 | ✓ (5.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.6% | 51.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 62.8% | 37.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.4% | 49.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils +1 (71-70). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Roche * | 38 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 3 | - |
| S. May * | 34 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 7-7 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 26 | - |
| R. McCants * | 33 | 3-13 | 1-8 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | - |
| J. Manuel * | 25 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | - |
| E. Arriaran * | 21 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
| M. Williams | 25 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - |
| D. Noel | 16 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| M. Scott | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Q. Thomas | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| W. Miller | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Redick * | 40 | 4-12 | 4-10 | 6-6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 10 | - |
| D. Ewing * | 39 | 5-16 | 3-9 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | - |
| S. Williams * | 38 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 23 | - |
| S. Dockery * | 23 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | - |
| S. Randolph * | 19 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| D. Nelson | 29 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 13 | - |
| L. Melchionni | 11 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| P. Johnson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter