Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.9% | 74.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 52.5% | 47.5% | -0.6 | ✓ (33.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 75.0% | 25.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 96.2% | 3.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 94.3% | 5.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 94.4% | 5.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers -34 (76-110). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Roche * | 28 | 5-8 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 | - |
| E. Arriaran * | 25 | 8-10 | 2-3 | 5-6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 20 | - |
| S. May * | 20 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 8-11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 22 | - |
| R. McCants * | 18 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | - |
| J. Manuel * | 14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| D. Noel | 18 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | - |
| M. Scott | 16 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - |
| M. Williams | 16 | 6-8 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 16 | - |
| W. Miller | 10 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | - |
| R. Terry | 9 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Q. Thomas | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | - |
| B. Sanders | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| C.J. Hooker | 3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| B. Foster | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| C. Everett | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| J. Holley | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Singletary * | 28 | 2-9 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | - |
| M. McLean * | 24 | 3-11 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -3 | - |
| E. Brown * | 24 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | - |
| A. Joseph * | 21 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | - |
| J.R. Reynolds | 28 | 5-9 | 4-8 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 12 | - |
| G. Forbes | 27 | 5-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | -2 | - |
| T. Bannister | 19 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| T. Soroye | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - |
| B. Campbell | 6 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| J. Cain | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - |
| H. Nacey | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter