Model Predictions
| Model | UC Davis Aggies | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 72.2% | 27.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.6% | 45.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 49.2% | 50.8% | +0.2 | ✗ (23.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 63.1% | 36.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.7% | 30.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 69.7% | 30.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs -23 (56-79). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Moore | 38 | 7-17 | 2-6 | 5-6 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 17 | - |
| F. Abdelsamad | 35 | 9-16 | 5-11 | 5-5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 16 | - |
| P. Rasmussen | 27 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| R. Marentez | 24 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -3 | - |
| T. Juillerat | 22 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - |
| J. Stearns | 22 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | - |
| A. Warmerdam | 18 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 11 | - |
| R. Ehsan | 10 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| M. Butts | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| R. Schwarz | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Enzweiler | 35 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 | - |
| F. Sampson | 26 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | - |
| A. Haskins | 26 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Mike Titchenal | 23 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - |
| P. Johnson | 20 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 5-9 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 5 | - |
| D. Whiten | 18 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | - |
| G. Jones | 17 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | - |
| V. Lisinac | 15 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | - |
| L. Finnegan | 9 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | - |
| T. McGinn | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Z. Thurow | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter