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2004-12-20

Model Predictions

Model Montana Grizzlies San Francisco Dons Spread Result
Elo 19.5% 80.5% -
Bradley-Terry 92.6% 7.4% -
Margin 100.0% 0.0% -46.8 (67.8 off)
Pythagorean 50.1% 49.9% -
Efficiency 39.3% 60.7% -
Adjusted Efficiency 30.2% 69.8% -
Log Adjusted 30.3% 69.7% -

Actual: San Francisco Dons +21 (79-58). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Montana Grizzlies

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
L. Farr 34 3-11 0-2 1-4 7 6 1 0 3 7 7 -
J. Seyfert 33 8-13 0-0 4-7 4 0 2 0 5 20 8 -
K. Criswell 26 1-9 0-5 0-2 3 2 0 0 1 2 -3 -
A. Strait 21 3-5 0-1 3-5 7 0 1 0 3 9 9 -
M. Martin 18 1-5 0-3 0-0 3 1 0 0 5 2 -4 -
M. Dlouhy 18 3-5 1-1 1-2 6 0 0 0 0 8 9 -
C. Easley 17 3-5 1-2 1-2 2 2 0 0 2 8 5 -
V. Matthews 14 1-2 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 -
B. Lynch 12 0-3 0-2 0-0 0 1 0 0 1 0 -3 -
C. McKay 7 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 -

San Francisco Dons

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
J. Gaines 31 2-4 0-1 1-1 2 5 5 0 1 5 12 -
J. Cox 29 6-11 3-4 0-0 5 0 2 0 2 15 9 -
T. Riley 26 5-14 2-6 0-1 6 2 3 1 1 12 9 -
J. Gumbs 26 6-9 2-4 0-0 6 1 1 0 0 14 13 -
D. Ingerson 19 2-5 1-4 0-0 2 4 3 0 3 5 6 -
J. Dukes 19 6-10 0-1 4-8 7 0 0 2 1 16 14 -
A. Wiggins Jr. 17 2-7 0-0 2-4 2 1 0 0 1 6 1 -
N. Pierce 15 2-2 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 1 0 4 5 -
K. Barnes 8 0-2 0-1 0-1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -
F. Czerny 6 0-0 0-0 0-2 1 0 0 0 4 0 -3 -
M. Bell 4 1-1 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 -

* = starter