Model Predictions
| Model | Texas State Bobcats | SMU Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.8% | 78.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.9% | 73.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 6.9% | 93.1% | +14.3 | ✓ (2.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 35.5% | 64.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 3.7% | 96.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 3.5% | 96.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 24.0% | 76.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: SMU Mustangs +17 (74-57). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Naylor | 33 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | - |
| B. Brickens | 31 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | - |
| C. Langhorne | 29 | 1-9 | 1-4 | 2-6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| M. Turner | 28 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 5 | - |
| A. Dill | 24 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | - |
| C. Stoermer | 14 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| L. Burroughs | 13 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| M. Canady | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| R. Adams | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| E. Patterson | 7 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| T. Broussard | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
SMU Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hopkins | 34 | 5-11 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 8 | - |
| P. Simpson | 34 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | - |
| J. Isham | 32 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 | - |
| D. Roberts | 27 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 15 | - |
| E. Castro | 26 | 8-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 15 | - |
| D. Pearson | 21 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| J. Knowles | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - |
| J. Killen | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| I. Ofoegbu | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter