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2004-12-04

Model Predictions

Model Kentucky Wildcats North Carolina Tar Heels Spread Result
Elo 55.7% 44.3% -
Bradley-Terry 47.2% 52.8% -
Margin 36.4% 63.6% +3.1 (9.9 off)
Pythagorean 42.3% 57.7% -
Efficiency 30.9% 69.1% -
Adjusted Efficiency 27.4% 72.6% -
Log Adjusted 27.3% 72.7% -

Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +13 (91-78). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Kentucky Wildcats

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
M. Kennedy * 35 10-19 4-6 0-0 6 2 5 0 3 24 15 -
R. Rondo * 25 3-4 0-0 1-3 0 2 3 0 1 7 7 -
P. Sparks * 24 3-10 1-7 2-2 1 5 1 0 2 9 4 -
R. Morris * 23 2-9 0-0 3-6 6 2 0 1 2 7 5 -
C. Hayes * 22 2-7 0-0 0-0 6 2 1 4 2 4 8 -
J. Crawford 22 4-8 1-5 2-5 5 1 0 0 2 11 7 -
M. Adetula 17 0-0 0-0 0-0 3 0 1 4 0 0 8 -
R. Bradley 11 4-6 2-3 0-0 1 3 0 0 1 10 7 -
B. Perry 9 1-4 1-2 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 3 -1 -
R. Moss 7 1-2 1-2 0-0 0 2 0 0 0 3 3 -
J. Carrier 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -
L. Obrzut 2 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -

North Carolina Tar Heels

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
R. McCants * 34 7-15 4-7 10-11 4 1 2 1 1 28 20 -
A. Roche * 31 0-5 0-1 3-9 5 7 1 0 5 3 6 -
E. Arriaran * 28 6-9 0-1 7-8 7 1 0 0 2 19 16 -
J. Manuel * 27 3-6 0-0 3-3 4 3 3 0 1 9 12 -
S. May * 26 6-11 0-0 2-5 19 4 0 1 2 14 25 -
M. Williams 18 2-5 1-1 0-0 4 0 1 0 3 5 2 -
D. Noel 16 4-4 0-0 2-4 5 1 1 0 2 10 11 -
M. Scott 11 1-4 1-3 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 3 -1 -
Q. Thomas 9 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 1 1 0 2 0 2 -

* = starter